diff --git a/assets/mcmc_samples.json b/assets/mcmc_samples.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..64e5d3f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/assets/mcmc_samples.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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0.094],[18.062,5.93,0.008,0.094],[24.666,1.988,0.006,0.091],[23.742,5.551,0.007,0.099],[20.341,0.873,0.012,0.128],[12.62,4.93,0.028,0.099],[14.594,2.036,0.011,0.09],[12.937,0.357,0.029,0.096],[9.905,0.513,0.022,0.088],[16.655,0.023,0.028,0.093],[14.187,4.847,0.017,0.099],[23.755,2.353,0.007,0.093],[16.612,0.061,0.016,0.098],[22.974,0.233,0.008,0.094],[16.395,1.696,0.016,0.115],[14.215,0.038,0.033,0.101],[28.575,0.005,0.133,0.099],[19.32,0.008,3.734,0.081],[22.152,0.008,3.811,0.098],[13.891,0.031,0.035,0.103],[18.021,0.032,0.027,0.118],[14.329,0.034,0.03,0.092],[15.598,0.034,0.026,0.096],[12.6,0.364,0.016,0.093],[14.869,0.038,0.028,0.102],[12.908,0.05,0.038,0.098],[17.308,0.038,0.021,0.1],[16.058,0.049,0.019,0.095],[21.763,0.018,0.03,0.112],[11.005,0.057,0.028,0.077],[11.985,2.386,0.021,0.104],[13.847,1.659,0.011,0.089],[22.65,3.121,0.008,0.106],[16.54,0.714,0.009,0.084],[17.057,4.939,0.018,0.133],[12.825,1.656,0.034,0.096],[15.315,0.051,0.025,0.104],[26.865,0.559,0.007,0.106],[23.707,4.806,0.006,0.114],[20.256,1,0.01,0.105],[28.925,2.964,0.006,0.119],[18.912,5.998,0.008,0.088],[21.227,0.013,0.091,0.119],[20.868,2.979,0.013,0.116],[16.727,0.407,0.015,0.101],[12.644,2.667,0.026,0.111],[13.018,0.056,0.037,0.095],[12.676,5.508,0.035,0.108],[13.246,0.059,0.028,0.096],[23.552,3.264,0.009,0.113],[12.863,0.039,0.032,0.089],[13.814,0.044,0.028,0.098],[15.187,0.336,0.017,0.114],[20.694,1.605,0.008,0.097],[22.772,4.757,0.006,0.097],[32.423,1.436,0.005,0.105],[29.24,5.147,0.005,0.099],[11.94,5.214,0.019,0.105],[24.51,0.659,0.007,0.103],[17.403,2.577,0.011,0.096],[16.222,1.173,0.009,0.089],[15.365,0.033,0.027,0.099],[26.007,5.528,0.008,0.118],[31.846,4.469,0.005,0.101],[27.195,3.016,0.005,0.099],[25.637,5.758,0.005,0.094],[26.211,1.555,0.005,0.085],[14.986,0.036,0.035,0.097],[29.139,2.141,0.005,0.085],[23.254,2.397,0.007,0.101],[23.393,1.661,0.009,0.111],[20.087,0.172,0.01,0.101],[18.574,0.034,0.024,0.112],[21.924,0.052,0.01,0.102],[26.049,0.014,0.028,0.113],[15.342,0.039,0.028,0.102],[28.634,2.271,0.005,0.1],[15.927,0.034,0.021,0.091],[21.283,2.395,0.008,0.089],[22.041,0.021,0.02,0.103],[17.543,0.028,0.027,0.104],[15.17,0.032,0.03,0.102],[16.217,0.039,0.026,0.106],[12.46,0.074,0.028,0.094],[17.618,0.026,0.032,0.106],[14.859,3.706,0.017,0.108],[14.554,0.036,0.028,0.095],[19.042,0.375,0.024,0.151],[20.343,4.754,0.01,0.102],[28.8,1.901,0.006,0.106],[28.722,4.7,0.005,0.095],[31.006,2.696,0.005,0.107],[12.738,2.795,0.028,0.098],[20.011,5.86,0.026,0.146],[17.098,3.336,0.026,0.133],[10.847,2.636,0.027,0.088],[13.656,2.225,0.021,0.107],[18.241,0.031,0.034,0.119],[16.247,0.023,0.033,0.099],[23.286,3.053,0.008,0.107],[27.148,3.133,0.005,0.087],[15.462,5.781,0.013,0.088],[17.039,5.645,0.015,0.112],[14.427,5.209,0.012,0.085],[15.613,0.03,0.028,0.101],[15.251,0.037,0.021,0.096],[14.149,4.424,0.032,0.114],[14.579,0.628,0.032,0.115],[12.853,0.055,0.027,0.092],[14.082,0.041,0.028,0.093],[15.934,0.042,0.025,0.103],[19.65,3.913,0.01,0.111],[11.594,0.036,0.05,0.099],[15.234,4.866,0.023,0.113],[31.828,0.409,0.005,0.104],[13.225,3.299,0.03,0.102],[10.683,4.506,0.034,0.096],[16.149,0.053,0.024,0.114],[16.409,0.044,0.021,0.103],[19.716,3.412,0.008,0.091],[16.11,0.043,0.029,0.109],[14.625,0.121,0.023,0.107],[26.315,5.836,0.005,0.095],[16.411,1.387,0.012,0.095],[33.44,3.397,0.005,0.119],[17.291,2.868,0.012,0.1],[32.648,1.249,0.005,0.102],[26.801,5.876,0.005,0.089],[14.011,4.926,0.018,0.096],[13.792,4.562,0.037,0.104]]}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/docs/CHANGELOG.md b/docs/CHANGELOG.md
index edc0fd9..22797a3 100644
--- a/docs/CHANGELOG.md
+++ b/docs/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -5,6 +5,30 @@
 > section la plus récente EN PREMIER ; ce fichier est lu par le dialog
 > « Nouveautés » de l'app web (fetch `docs/CHANGELOG.md`).
 
+## [1.9.0] — 2026-09-18
+
+### Modèle Estrannaise ANALYTIQUE + nuage d'incertitude (portage Android v1.9.0, versions sync)
+
+- **Le modèle ESE n'est plus les tables horaires ODS** : il est désormais la
+  **forme close 3C publiée par estrannaise.js** (les sources originelles
+  dont l'ODS n'était que l'échantillonnage horaire) — fidélité épinglée :
+  RMS 0,00 vs les tables sur 0→200 j, écart de pic ≤ 0,1 %. Les tables ne
+  sont plus fetchées au démarrage (−550 Ko, démarrage plus rapide) ;
+  `pk_profiles.json` reste uniquement comme référence des tests.
+- **6 esters injectables couverts** (EV, EU, EEn, EC, EB + **EUCS**, undécylate
+  suspension cristalline, exclusif à ce fit) — l'ancien ESE n'en couvrait
+  que 3.
+- **NUAGE D'INCERTITUDE (exclusif ESE)** : Estrannaise publie le posterior
+  MCMC de ses paramètres (313 échantillons/ester) — chip `Nuage`
+  (off par défaut, activable à volonté, actif SEULEMENT si ESE est affiché)
+  → nuage diffus de courbes montrant la plage d'imprécision du modèle,
+  comme sur le site estrannaise. TFS/WHSAH ne publient pas de posterior →
+  pas de nuage pour eux.
+- t½ terminale ESE désormais **analytique** (ln2/min(k1,k2,k3)) — la
+  recommandation de prise de sang n'estime plus la t½ par pente de table.
+- **Tests** : fidélité (RMS, pics), cas dégénérés, MCMC (313 × 6), nuage
+  (32 courbes, dispersion, exclusivité ESE), t½ analytique.
+
 ## [1.8.1] — 2026-09-17
 
 ### Corrigé — la stabilisation ignorait les changements récents (dose/ester/intervalle)
diff --git a/js/pk/estrannaise-cloud.js b/js/pk/estrannaise-cloud.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..df00e03
--- /dev/null
+++ b/js/pk/estrannaise-cloud.js
@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+/**
+ * NUAGE D'INCERTITUDE (v1.9.0, miroir fidèle de `pk/EstrannaiseCloud.kt`) —
+ * feature **exclusive au modèle ESE**.
+ *
+ * SOURCE : Estrannaise publie le **posterior MCMC** de ses paramètres
+ * (313 échantillons `(d, k1, k2, k3)` par ester injectable — cf
+ * js/pk/estrannaise-models.js). Le graphique dessine un **nuage diffus** :
+ * M courbes (une par échantillon échelonné) qui montrent la plage
+ * d'imprécision possible du modèle — l'affichage du site estrannaise.
+ * TFS/WHSAH ne publient pas de posterior → pas de nuage (choix confirmé).
+ *
+ * QU'EST-CE QUE LE NUAGE REPRÉSENTE : la superposition des doses des
+ * traitements E2 **à profil ESE** évaluée avec UN échantillon MCMC par
+ * courbe. Les contributions des autres traitements ne sont PAS incluses
+ * (pas d'incertitude publiée pour eux — limite documentée §12).
+ *
+ * DÉTERMINISME : échantillons **échelonnés** (stride, pas d'aléatoire) —
+ * le nuage est identique à chaque affichage et testable en Node.
+ *
+ * PUR (aucun DOM) → testable en Node (tests/estrannaise-cloud.test.js).
+ */
+
+import * as EstrannaiseModels from './estrannaise-models.js';
+import { usesProfileModel } from './pk-engine.js';
+
+
+/** Nombre de courbes du nuage (compromis étendue visuelle / coût ×32). */
+export const DEFAULT_NB_CURVES = 32;
+
+/** Un creux à moins de 6 h n'est pas exploitable (réutilisé pour l'horizon). */
+export const MIN_HORIZON_HOURS = 6;
+
+/**
+ * Calcule le nuage d'incertitude.
+ *
+ * @param {object[]} treatments TOUS les traitements (actifs ET inactifs, §6.bis)
+ * @param {object[]} doseLogs   toutes les doses réelles
+ * @param {number}   startMs    fenêtre demandée (celle du graphique)
+ * @param {number}   endMs
+ * @param {number}   stepMs     pas de la grille (stepForRange)
+ * @param {number}   nowMs      « maintenant »
+ * @param {number}   [nbCurves=32]
+ * @returns {Array<Array<{timestamp:number,e2:number,t:number}>>} M courbes —
+ *   **vide** si rien n'est calculable : aucun traitement E2 actif à profil
+ *   ESE couvert, aucune dose, ou MCMC non chargé.
+ */
+export function compute(
+  treatments, doseLogs, startMs, endMs, stepMs, nowMs, nbCurves = DEFAULT_NB_CURVES,
+) {
+  if (startMs >= endMs || stepMs <= 0 || nbCurves < 2) return [];
+
+  // Porteurs : traitements E2 actifs à profil ESE avec ester couvert
+  const carriers = treatments.filter((t) =>
+    t.type === 'ESTRADIOL'
+    && t.isActive
+    && usesProfileModel(t)
+    && t.pkModel === 'ESE'
+    && EstrannaiseModels.hasModel(t.esterType));
+  if (carriers.length === 0) return [];
+
+  const carrierIds = new Set(carriers.map((t) => t.id));
+  const carrierDoses = doseLogs.filter((d) => carrierIds.has(d.treatmentId) && d.timestamp <= endMs);
+  if (carrierDoses.length === 0) return [];
+
+  // Échantillons échelonnés du posterior (déterministes)
+  const samplesByEster = new Map(
+    carriers.map((t) => [t.esterType, EstrannaiseModels.mcmcSamples(t.esterType)]),
+  );
+  if ([...samplesByEster.values()].some((s) => s.length === 0)) return [];
+  const maxSamples = Math.min(...[...samplesByEster.values()].map((s) => s.length));
+  const stride = Math.max(1, Math.trunc(maxSamples / Math.min(nbCurves, maxSamples)));
+
+  // Grille : de max(start, 1ʳᵉ dose du porteur) à endMs — rien avant la 1ʳᵉ dose
+  const firstDoseMs = Math.min(...carrierDoses.map((d) => d.timestamp));
+  const t0 = Math.max(startMs, firstDoseMs);
+  if (t0 > endMs) return [];
+
+  // ── M courbes ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  const cloud = [];
+  for (let m = 0; m < nbCurves; m++) {
+    const sampleIdx = Math.min(m * stride, maxSamples - 1);
+    const paramsByEster = new Map(
+      [...samplesByEster.entries()].map(([ester, samples]) => [
+        ester, samples[Math.min(sampleIdx, samples.length - 1)],
+      ]),
+    );
+    const curve = [];
+    for (let t = t0; t <= endMs; t += stepMs) {
+      let e2 = 0.0;
+      for (const dose of carrierDoses) {
+        if (dose.timestamp > t) continue;
+        const dtH = (t - dose.timestamp) / 3600000;
+        const tr = carriers.find((x) => x.id === dose.treatmentId);
+        e2 += EstrannaiseModels.sampleWithParams(
+          tr.esterType, dtH, paramsByEster.get(tr.esterType),
+        ) * dose.doseAmount;
+      }
+      curve.push({ timestamp: t, e2, t: 0.0 });
+    }
+    if (curve.length >= 2) cloud.push(curve);
+  }
+  return cloud;
+}
diff --git a/js/pk/estrannaise-models.js b/js/pk/estrannaise-models.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..270c20b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/js/pk/estrannaise-models.js
@@ -0,0 +1,141 @@
+/**
+ * ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * Modèle **Estrannaise analytique** (v1.9.0, miroir fidèle de
+ * `pk/EstrannaiseModels.kt`) — remplace définitivement les tables horaires
+ * ODS pour le modèle ESE.
+ *
+ * SOURCE ORIGINELLE : https://github.com/WHSAH/estrannaise.js/ — le modèle 3
+ * compartiments avec les paramètres d'ajustement **publiés par Estrannaise**
+ * (t en JOURS, dose en mg → pg/mL) :
+ *
+ *   C(t) = dose · d · k1·k2 · [ e^(−k1·t)/((k1−k2)(k1−k3))
+ *                             − e^(−k2·t)/((k1−k2)(k2−k3))
+ *                             + e^(−k3·t)/((k1−k3)(k2−k3)) ]
+ *
+ * FIDÉLITÉ (épinglée par EstrannaiseModelsTest) : cette forme close
+ * reproduit les anciennes tables ODS à l'identique (RMS 0,00 sur 0→200 j,
+ * écart de pic ≤ 0,1 %) — l'ODS n'était que l'échantillonnage horaire de
+ * ces formules. Décision v1.9.0 : « tous les modèles ont maintenant leurs
+ * sources originelles — on abandonne complètement les liens avec le
+ * fichier ODS ».
+ *
+ * NUAGE D'INCERTITUDE (v1.9.0, exclusif ESE) : Estrannaise publie le
+ * **posterior MCMC** de ses paramètres (313 échantillons par ester —
+ * `assets/mcmc_samples.json`, 48 Ko, fetché au démarrage). Le graphique
+ * peut dessiner un nuage diffus de courbes montrant la plage
+ * d'imprécision du modèle. TFS/WHSAH ne publient pas de posterior.
+ *
+ * PUR sauf [init] (fetch de l'asset MCMC) — la formule est testable en
+ * Node (tests/estrannaise-models.test.js).
+ * ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ */
+
+// ── Paramètres d'ajustement publiés par Estrannaise (src/modeldata.js) ──────
+// Clés = clés esters de l'app. Mapping depuis le repo : « EV im »→EV,
+// « EUn im »→EU, « EEn im »→EEn, « EC im »→EC, « EB im »→EB,
+// « EUn casubq »→EUCS (nouveau code ester v1.9.0).
+const PK_PARAMETERS = {
+  EV: [478.0, 0.236, 4.85, 1.24],
+  EU: [471.5, 0.01729, 6.528, 2.285],
+  EEN: [191.4, 0.119, 0.601, 0.402],
+  EC: [246.0, 0.0825, 3.57, 0.669],
+  EB: [1893.1, 0.67, 61.5, 4.34],
+  EUCS: [16.15, 0.046, 0.022, 0.101],
+};
+
+let mcmc = null; // posterior MCMC (chargé via init()) — { ester: [[d,k1,k2,k3] × 313] }
+
+/**
+ * Fetch de l'asset `assets/mcmc_samples.json` (48 Ko) puis init — appelé au
+ * démarrage par app.js (remplace l'ancien fetch des tables ODS, 550 Ko).
+ * Silencieux en cas d'échec (le nuage restera simplement vide — les courbes
+ * nommées ne dépendent pas du posterior).
+ */
+export async function init() {
+  try {
+    const resp = await fetch('assets/mcmc_samples.json');
+    if (resp.ok) initWithJson(await resp.text());
+  } catch (_e) {
+    // best-effort : sans MCMC, pas de nuage — les courbes restent calculables
+  }
+}
+
+export function hasModel(ester) {
+  return Object.prototype.hasOwnProperty.call(PK_PARAMETERS, String(ester).toUpperCase());
+}
+
+/** Les paramètres de l'ester, ou null (lookup insensible à la casse). */
+export function model(ester) {
+  const key = String(ester).toUpperCase();
+  if (!hasModel(key)) return null;
+  const [d, k1, k2, k3] = PK_PARAMETERS[key];
+  return {
+    d, k1, k2, k3,
+    /** t½ terminale ANALYTIQUE : la phase la plus lente domine la queue. */
+    get terminalHalfLifeDays() {
+      return Math.log(2) / Math.min(k1, k2, k3);
+    },
+  };
+}
+
+/** Forme close 3C (t en JOURS) — cas général + 3 cas dégénérés (taux égaux). */
+function curveDays(t, dose, m) {
+  if (t < 0) return 0.0;
+  let ret = 0.0;
+  if (dose > 0 && m.d > 0) {
+    const { k1, k2, k3 } = m;
+    if (k1 === k2 && k2 === k3) {
+      ret += dose * m.d * k1 * k1 * t * t * Math.exp(-k1 * t) / 2;
+    } else if (k1 === k2 && k2 !== k3) {
+      ret += dose * m.d * k1 * k1 * (Math.exp(-k3 * t) - Math.exp(-k1 * t) * (1 + (k1 - k3) * t)) / (k1 - k3) / (k1 - k3);
+    } else if (k1 !== k2 && k1 === k3) {
+      ret += dose * m.d * k1 * k2 * (Math.exp(-k2 * t) - Math.exp(-k1 * t) * (1 + (k1 - k2) * t)) / (k1 - k2) / (k1 - k2);
+    } else if (k1 !== k2 && k2 === k3) {
+      ret += dose * m.d * k1 * k2 * (Math.exp(-k1 * t) - Math.exp(-k2 * t) * (1 - (k1 - k2) * t)) / (k1 - k2) / (k1 - k2);
+    } else {
+      ret += dose * m.d * k1 * k2 * (
+        Math.exp(-k1 * t) / (k1 - k2) / (k1 - k3)
+        - Math.exp(-k2 * t) / (k1 - k2) / (k2 - k3)
+        + Math.exp(-k3 * t) / (k1 - k3) / (k2 - k3)
+      );
+    }
+  }
+  return Number.isNaN(ret) ? 0.0 : ret;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Réponse normalisée (pg/mL PAR mg) à dtHours — t converti en jours ici.
+ * dtHours ≤ 0 → 0.
+ */
+export function sample(ester, dtHours) {
+  const m = model(ester);
+  if (!m || dtHours <= 0) return 0.0;
+  return curveDays(dtHours / 24, 1.0, m);
+}
+
+/** Courbe avec un jeu de paramètres DONNÉ (échantillon MCMC) — nuage. */
+export function sampleWithParams(ester, dtHours, p) {
+  if (dtHours <= 0) return 0.0;
+  return curveDays(dtHours / 24, 1.0, p);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Charge le posterior MCMC depuis `assets/mcmc_samples.json` (appelé au
+ * démarrage par app.js — remplace le fetch des tables ODS).
+ * @param {string} json contenu JSON brut
+ */
+export function initWithJson(json) {
+  const raw = JSON.parse(json);
+  // Mapper vers des objets {d, k1, k2, k3} (miroir du Param Kotlin) — les
+  // tableaux bruts du JSON ne portent pas les noms de champs
+  const parsed = {};
+  for (const [ester, arr] of Object.entries(raw)) {
+    parsed[ester.toUpperCase()] = arr.map(([d, k1, k2, k3]) => ({ d, k1, k2, k3 }));
+  }
+  mcmc = parsed;
+}
+
+/** Les échantillons MCMC d'un ester (vide si non chargé / inconnu). */
+export function mcmcSamples(ester) {
+  return (mcmc && mcmc[String(ester).toUpperCase()]) || [];
+}
diff --git a/js/pk/index.js b/js/pk/index.js
index 6cf9e3e..f68a6f5 100644
--- a/js/pk/index.js
+++ b/js/pk/index.js
@@ -11,10 +11,12 @@ export * from './pk-extrema.js';
 export * as LabTrajectoryModel from './lab-trajectory-model.js';
 export { computeLabAnchoredCurve, ratioAt, extensionHorizonEndMs } from './lab-trajectory-model.js';
 export * as LabTiming from './lab-timing.js';
+export * as EstrannaiseModels from './estrannaise-models.js';
+export { sample as estrannaiseSample, hasModel as estrannaiseHasModel } from './estrannaise-models.js';
 export { nextBloodDrawRecommendation, shouldSuggestPosology } from './lab-timing.js';
+export { compute as computeEstrannaiseCloud, DEFAULT_NB_CURVES } from './estrannaise-cloud.js';
 export * from './chart-helpers.js';
 export * as Alerts from './alerts.js';
-export * as PKProfileStore from './pk-profile-store.js';
 export * as TransfemScienceModels from './transfem-science-models.js';
 export * as WhsahModels from './whsah-models.js';
 export * as PKPresets from './presets.js';
diff --git a/js/pk/lab-timing.js b/js/pk/lab-timing.js
index 14da394..ce88404 100644
--- a/js/pk/lab-timing.js
+++ b/js/pk/lab-timing.js
@@ -35,6 +35,7 @@
  */
 
 import { computeCurve, generateForecastDoses, TConfig, usesProfileModel, doseEster } from './pk-engine.js';
+import * as EstrannaiseModels from './estrannaise-models.js';
 import { model as tfsModel } from './transfem-science-models.js';
 import { model as whsahModel } from './whsah-models.js';
 import * as pkProfileStore from './pk-profile-store.js';
@@ -77,7 +78,8 @@ export function nextBloodDrawRecommendation(treatments, doseLogs, labs, nowMs =
   let tHalfDays = null;
   if (carrier.pkModel === 'TFS') tHalfDays = tfsModel(carrier.esterType)?.terminalHalfLifeDays ?? null;
   else if (carrier.pkModel === 'WHS') tHalfDays = whsahModel(carrier.esterType)?.terminalHalfLifeDays ?? null;
-  else if (carrier.pkModel === 'ESE') tHalfDays = pkProfileStore.terminalHalfLifeDays(carrier.esterType, 'ESE');
+  // v1.9.0 : ESE analytique (estrannaise.js) — t½ terminale analytique
+  else if (carrier.pkModel === 'ESE') tHalfDays = EstrannaiseModels.model(carrier.esterType)?.terminalHalfLifeDays ?? null;
   if (tHalfDays === null || tHalfDays === undefined) return null;
 
   // ── 3) Début du régime courant + date de stabilisation ────────────────────
diff --git a/js/pk/pk-engine.js b/js/pk/pk-engine.js
index d6cbb50..a7015cb 100644
--- a/js/pk/pk-engine.js
+++ b/js/pk/pk-engine.js
@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@
 
 import * as TransfemScienceModels from './transfem-science-models.js';
 import * as WhsahModels from './whsah-models.js';
-import * as PKProfileStore from './pk-profile-store.js';
+import { sample as estrannaiseSample, hasModel as estrannaiseHasModel, model as estrannaiseModel } from './estrannaise-models.js';
 
 /** Une heure en ms. */
 export const HOUR_MS = 3600000;
@@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ export function doseEster(treatment, dose) {
  *  1. traitement à PROFIL PK (injection + ester ≠ NONE) :
  *     - TFS + ester couvert par le V3C → TransfemScienceModels ;
  *     - WHSAH + ester couvert par le fit Mona → WhsahModels ;
- *     - sinon → tables ODS via PKProfileStore (ester sans modèle → 0) ;
+ *     - ESE → forme close estrannaise.js (v1.9.0, analytique) ; ester sans modèle → 0 ;
  *  2. sinon → Bateman (gel / patch / oral / custom).
  *
  * `modelOverride` force ESE/TFS/WHS pour CE calcul (le graphique dessine les
@@ -173,7 +173,10 @@ export function concentrationOfDose(treatment, dose, queryTimeMs, bateman = null
       if (mod === PKModels.WHSAH && WhsahModels.hasModel(ester)) {
         return WhsahModels.sample(ester, dtH) * mg;
       }
-      return PKProfileStore.sample(ester, mod, dtH) * mg;
+      if (mod === 'ESE' && estrannaiseHasModel(ester)) {
+        return estrannaiseSample(ester, dtH) * mg;
+      }
+      return 0.0; // ester sans modèle (ni TFS ni WHSAH ni ESE analytique)
     }
   }
 
@@ -207,7 +210,9 @@ export function cutoffHours(treatment) {
     } else if (mod === PKModels.TRANSFEM_SCIENCE && TransfemScienceModels.hasModel(treatment.esterType)) {
       profileH = TransfemScienceModels.model(treatment.esterType).terminalHalfLifeDays * 24.0 * 10.0;
     } else {
-      profileH = PKProfileStore.profileLength(treatment.esterType, mod);
+      // v1.9.0 : ESE analytique → t½ terminale analytique (comme TFS/WHS),
+      // plus la longueur de table ODS
+      profileH = 10 * 24 * estrannaiseModel(treatment.esterType).terminalHalfLifeDays;
     }
   }
   const batemanH = usesProfileModel(treatment) ? 0.0 : 30.0 * treatment.eliminationHalfLifeHours;
diff --git a/js/ui/app.js b/js/ui/app.js
index 386c727..feabb5d 100644
--- a/js/ui/app.js
+++ b/js/ui/app.js
@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
  * HormoneTrack Web — shell applicatif (portage de HormoneTrackApp.kt +
  * MainActivity.kt + HormoneTrackRoot.kt).
  *
- *  - attend l'initialisation de PKProfileStore (fetch de l'asset) ;
+ *  - attend l'initialisation de l'asset MCMC (nuage d'incertitude ESE, v1.9.0) ;
  *  - routing par hash (#home/#chart/#doses/#labs/#treatments/#settings/
  *    #treatment-edit/{id}) — permet la navigation headless et le lien profond ;
  *  - NavigationBar 5 onglets (barre masquée sur settings/éditeur, miroir
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@
  * ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
  */
 
-import * as PKProfileStore from '../pk/pk-profile-store.js';
+import * as EstrannaiseModels from '../pk/estrannaise-models.js';
 import { store } from '../data/store.js';
 import * as AppLog from '../util/app-log.js';
 import { isVersionNewer, sectionsSince } from '../util/changelog.js';
@@ -57,7 +57,9 @@ async function main() {
   // 4) Asset PK (équivalent de PKProfileStore.init(context) dans
   //    HormoneTrackApp.onCreate) — les courbes ne sont calculées qu'après ;
   //    le re-rendu ci-dessous remplace le « Chargement… » par les données.
-  await PKProfileStore.init();
+  // v1.9.0 : l'asset MCMC (nuage ESE, 48 Ko) remplace le fetch des tables
+  // ODS (550 Ko) — démarrage plus rapide, runtime 100 % sources analytiques
+  await EstrannaiseModels.init();
 
   // 5) Langue au démarrage (miroir MainActivity : setApplicationLocales)
   document.documentElement.lang = resolveLocale(store.getSettings().language);
@@ -154,14 +156,6 @@ function renderRoute() {
   const preserveChartState = route === 'chart' && lastRoute === 'chart';
   lastRoute = route;
 
-  // Écran de chargement tant que l'asset PK n'est pas chargé (les écrans
-  // afficheraient « aucune donnée » à tort — les profils valent 0 avant init).
-  if (!PKProfileStore.isInitialized()) {
-    contentEl.textContent = '';
-    contentEl.appendChild(el('p', { class: 'hint', style: 'padding:24px 0;' }, t('loading')));
-    return;
-  }
-
   // Marqueur E2E : l'app est prête (asset chargé, écran rendu) — utilisé par
   // scripts/e2e.mjs pour attendre la fin du rendu (plus de course au screenshot).
   document.body.setAttribute('data-ready', '1');
@@ -364,6 +358,41 @@ function maybeLoadDemoData() {
       notes: isLastPair ? 'DHT : 12 ng/dL' : null,
     });
   });
+  // v1.9.0 : un 2ᵉ traitement E2 à modèle ESE (EV) avec 2 doses — permet
+  // de démontrer/tester le nuage d'incertitude ESE et la couverture
+  // multi-esters sans toucher au traitement EEn (TFS) principal.
+  const evId = store.upsertTreatment({
+    name: 'EV — Estrannaise (démo)',
+    type: 'ESTRADIOL',
+    route: 'INJECTION_IM',
+    doseAmount: 4.0,
+    doseUnit: 'mg',
+    isActive: true,
+    notes: null,
+    esterType: 'EV',
+    pkModel: 'ESE',
+    absorptionHours: 45,
+    eliminationHalfLifeHours: 70,
+    bioavailabilityFraction: 1,
+    scaleFactor: 1.0,
+    forecastIntervalDays: null,
+    reminderHour: null,
+    reminderMinute: null,
+    reminderEnabled: false,
+    calendarEventId: null,
+    createdAt: now - 60 * DAY,
+  });
+  // doses vieilles de 10-24 j : contribution résiduelle au présent (la
+  // courbe EV/SE fait partie du mini-chart sans saturer le niveau actuel)
+  for (const k of [24, 17, 10]) {
+    store.upsertDoseLog({
+      treatmentId: evId,
+      timestamp: now - k * DAY,
+      doseAmount: 4.0,
+      notes: null,
+      esterType: null,
+    });
+  }
   AppLog.log('demo', 'données de démonstration chargées (?demo=1)');
 }
 
diff --git a/js/ui/chart.js b/js/ui/chart.js
index 160fd84..6ce0275 100644
--- a/js/ui/chart.js
+++ b/js/ui/chart.js
@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@
 
 import {
   computeCurve, generateForecastDoses, autoCalibrated, TConfig,
-  computeLabAnchoredCurve,
+  computeLabAnchoredCurve, computeEstrannaiseCloud,
 } from '../pk/index.js';
 import {
   stepForRange, defaultModelToggles, panDeltaHours, clampPanHours,
@@ -124,6 +124,12 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
       // demandée explicitement ; le chip n'est actif que si Lab track est ON
       // (miroir ChartScreen.kt).
       showLabTrackExtend: false,
+    // v1.9.0 : NUAGE D'INCERTITUDE du modèle ESE (posterior MCMC de
+    // estrannaise.js) — OFF par défaut, activable à volonté, ACTIVABLE
+    // SEULEMENT si le modèle ESE est affiché (exclusif à ce modèle — les
+    // fits TFS/WHSAH ne publient pas de posterior). Éteindre ESE coupe le
+    // nuage automatiquement (miroir ChartScreen.kt).
+    showCloud: false,
       panResidualHours: 0.0, // résiduel fractionnaire du pan (fix #62)
       togglesInitialized: false,
     };
@@ -253,7 +259,13 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
 
     // Rangée 3 : toggles modèles superposables
     modelRow.textContent = '';
-    modelRow.appendChild(filterChip(t('model_ese'), state.showEse, () => { state.showEse = !state.showEse; redraw(); }));
+    modelRow.appendChild(filterChip(t('model_ese'), state.showEse, () => {
+      state.showEse = !state.showEse;
+      // v1.9.0 : le nuage est exclusif à ESE — éteindre ESE éteint le nuage
+      // (sinon il flotterait sans sa courbe)
+      if (!state.showEse) state.showCloud = false;
+      redraw();
+    }));
     modelRow.appendChild(filterChip(t('model_tfs'), state.showTfs, () => { state.showTfs = !state.showTfs; redraw(); }));
     modelRow.appendChild(filterChip(t('model_whs'), state.showWhs, () => { state.showWhs = !state.showWhs; redraw(); }));
     // v1.5.0 : courbe hybride ancrée sur les labs (off par défaut)
@@ -262,6 +274,9 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
     // défaut, SANS EFFET — donc désactivé — tant que Lab track est off :
     // la prolongation n'existe que comme extension de CETTE courbe)
     modelRow.appendChild(filterChip(t('show_lab_track_extend'), state.showLabTrackExtend, () => { state.showLabTrackExtend = !state.showLabTrackExtend; redraw(); }, !state.showLabTrack));
+    // v1.9.0 : nuage d'incertitude (off par défaut, activable à volonté,
+    // SEULEMENT si ESE est affiché — même pattern que Prolonger/Tracé labs)
+    modelRow.appendChild(filterChip(t('show_cloud'), state.showCloud, () => { state.showCloud = !state.showCloud; redraw(); }, !state.showEse));
 
     // ── Courbes par modèle sélectionné ─────────────────────────────────────
     const curves = [];
@@ -277,8 +292,8 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
     // ⚠️ Les DEUX clés doivent être SKIPPÉES par la boucle de légende
     // (leçon #63 Android : sinon le catchall imprime la légende TFS en
     // doublon) et avoir leurs entrées dédiées plus bas.
+    const step = stepForRange(state.rangeHours); // partagé : LAB + modèles (v1.9.0)
     if (state.showLabTrack) {
-      const step = stepForRange(state.rangeHours);
       const labCurve = computeLabAnchoredCurve(
         treatments, doseLogs, labResults, startMs, endMs, step, null,
         state.showLabTrackExtend,
@@ -292,6 +307,16 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
         curves.push(['LAB', labCurve.points]);
       }
     }
+    // v1.9.0 : NUAGE D'INCERTITUDE ESE — INDÉPENDANT du tracé labs (il ne
+    // dépend que de showCloud && showEse) : M courbes du posterior MCMC, cf
+    // EstrannaiseCloud. Clé 'CLOUD' skippée des légendes (leçon #63 miroir)
+    // et dessinée en alpha faible.
+    if (state.showCloud) {
+      const cloud = computeEstrannaiseCloud(
+        treatments, doseLogs, startMs, endMs, step, nowMs,
+      );
+      if (cloud.length > 0) curves.push(['CLOUD', cloud.flat()]);
+    }
     if (state.showEse || state.showTfs || state.showWhs) {
       // Home utilise le modèle stocké ; le graphique calibre chaque modèle
       // avec SA prédiction (fix #60). Référence = auto du modèle TFS (les
@@ -307,7 +332,6 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
       const allDoses = doseLogs.concat(forecastDoses);
 
       // Pas d'échantillonnage adaptatif au zoom (v1.2.9)
-      const step = stepForRange(state.rangeHours);
       const addCurve = (model) => {
         const autoM = autoByModel.get(model);
         curves.push([model, computeCurve(
@@ -354,6 +378,14 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
         drawChart(
           canvas,
           curves.map(([model, pts]) => {
+            if (model === 'CLOUD') {
+              // v1.9.0 : nuage MCMC — chaque courbe individuelle est tracée
+              // en alpha faible ; PAS de labels/extrema (incertitude, pas des
+              // courbes nommées). Ne participe pas aux échelles via allPoints
+              // ? Si : allPoints inclut CLOUD — les échelles s'adaptent donc
+              // au nuage (cohérent : le nuage montre le range réel possible).
+              return { points: pts, e2Style: { color: 'rgba(194,24,91,0.12)', dashed: true }, tStyle: null, showExtrema: false };
+            }
             if (model === 'LAB') {
               // v1.5.0 : Tracé labs = E2 rose foncé pointillé, PAS de courbe T
               // (série E2-only) et hors pics/creux (showExtrema=false)
@@ -396,7 +428,7 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
         // ⚠️ Les clés 'LAB' (v1.5.0) et 'LABX' (v1.6.0) sont SKIPPÉES
         // (légendes dédiées plus bas, fix #63 Android-miroir : sinon le
         // catchall imprime la légende TFS en doublon)
-        if (model === 'LAB' || model === 'LABX') continue;
+        if (model === 'LAB' || model === 'LABX' || model === 'CLOUD') continue;
         const st = seriesStyles(model);
         if (model === 'ESE') {
           legend.appendChild(legendLine(t('legend_ese_e2'), st.e2.color));
@@ -423,6 +455,12 @@ export function renderChart(container, ctx, { preserveState = false } = {}) {
       // si la série "LABX" existe (chip Prolonger actif ET horizon atteint
       // dans la fenêtre visible). Même condition pour les deux (factorisée) :
       // il ne peut jamais y avoir de courbe prolongée sans son avertissement.
+      // v1.9.0 : légende du nuage d'incertitude (ESE) — visible tant que
+      // le nuage est affiché (l'alpha faible le rend nettement secondaire)
+      if (state.showCloud && state.showEse
+        && curves.some(([m, pts]) => m === 'CLOUD' && pts.length >= 2)) {
+        legend.appendChild(el('div', { class: 'legend-muted' }, t('legend_cloud')));
+      }
       const labExtendVisible = state.showLabTrack && state.showLabTrackExtend
         && curves.some(([m, pts]) => m === 'LABX' && pts.length >= 2);
       if (labExtendVisible) {
diff --git a/js/ui/settings.js b/js/ui/settings.js
index 077d1b2..a6fc2db 100644
--- a/js/ui/settings.js
+++ b/js/ui/settings.js
@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ import { el, showDialog, field, switchRow, filterChip, toast } from './component
  * (APK + web au MÊME numéro, tags appariés `vX.Y.Z` + `vX.Y.Z-web`).
  * v1.4.10 = portage initial de l'Android v1.4.10.
  */
-export const WEB_VERSION = '1.8.1';
+export const WEB_VERSION = '1.9.0';
 
 /** Parse un champ numérique FR (virgule → point) ; null si vide/invalide. */
 function parseNumOrNull(text) {
diff --git a/js/util/i18n.js b/js/util/i18n.js
index 1decaa1..7004e23 100644
--- a/js/util/i18n.js
+++ b/js/util/i18n.js
@@ -194,6 +194,10 @@ const EN = {
   // v1.6.0 : prolongation du tracé labs au-delà du dernier lab (opt-in,
   // actif seulement quand Lab track est ON — miroir strings.xml Android)
   show_lab_track_extend: 'Extend',
+  // v1.9.0 : nuage d'incertitude du modèle ESE (posterior MCMC de
+  // estrannaise.js) — exclusif à ESE, off par défaut
+  show_cloud: 'Cloud',
+  legend_cloud: 'Dotted cloud = Estrannaise MCMC parameter uncertainty (ESE model only)',
   lab_track_extend_warning: '⚠ Simulation only, with no guarantee of matching reality: the extension extrapolates your model from your lab results — which can themselves be inaccurate. Trust your next blood test, not this curve.',
   back_to_present: 'Back to present',
   legend_ese_e2: 'E2 — Estrannaise (blue)',
@@ -387,6 +391,8 @@ const FR = {
   // v1.6.0 : prolongation du tracé labs au-delà du dernier lab (opt-in,
   // actif seulement quand Tracé labs est ON — miroir strings.xml Android)
   show_lab_track_extend: 'Prolonger',
+  show_cloud: 'Nuage',
+  legend_cloud: 'Nuage pointillé = incertitude des paramètres MCMC de l\'Estrannaise (modèle ESE seul)',
   lab_track_extend_warning: '⚠ Simple simulation, sans garantie de correspondre au réel : la prolongation extrapole ton modèle à partir de tes résultats de laboratoire — qui peuvent eux-mêmes être erronés. Fie-toi à ta prochaine prise de sang, pas à cette courbe.',
   back_to_present: 'Revenir à maintenant',
   legend_ese_e2: 'E2 — Estrannaise (bleu)',
diff --git a/scripts/e2e.mjs b/scripts/e2e.mjs
index ac93ab3..88cac77 100644
--- a/scripts/e2e.mjs
+++ b/scripts/e2e.mjs
@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ async function main() {
     ok(dialog !== null, 'dialog « Nouveautés » au premier lancement (markdown rendu)');
     if (dialog) {
       const dlgText = await dialog.textContent();
-      ok(dlgText.includes('Version 1.8.1'), 'dialog : section de la version courante');
+      ok(dlgText.includes('Version 1.9.0'), 'dialog : section de la version courante');
       const hasRenderedMd = await dialog.$('.md-body h3, .md-body strong');
       ok(hasRenderedMd !== null, 'dialog : markdown RENDU (titres/gras), pas de brut');
       await page.click('.dialog .actions button');
@@ -183,24 +183,25 @@ async function main() {
     }
     await page.waitForTimeout(400);
     // 1) Le chip « Prolonger » est DÉSACTIVÉ tant que « Tracé labs » est off
-    const extendDisabledBefore = await page.evaluate((lbl) => {
-      const b = [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === lbl);
+    const chipDisabled = (lbl) => page.evaluate((label) => {
+      const b = [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === label);
       return b ? /opacity:\s*0\.4/.test(b.getAttribute('style') || '') : null;
-    }, 'Prolonger');
+    }, lbl);
+    const clickChip = (lbl) => page.evaluate((label) => {
+      [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === label)?.click();
+    }, lbl);
+    const extendDisabledBefore = await chipDisabled('Prolonger');
     ok(extendDisabledBefore === true, 'chip « Prolonger » désactivé tant que Tracé labs est off');
     // 2) Active Tracé labs → la légende ancrée apparaît (sans avertissement)
-    await page.evaluate((lbl) => {
-      [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === lbl)?.click();
-    }, 'Tracé labs');
+    await clickChip('Tracé labs');
+    await page.waitForTimeout(400);
     await page.waitForTimeout(400);
     const labTrackText = await page.textContent('main.content');
     ok(labTrackText.includes('E2 ancrée sur tes labs'), 'légende « Tracé labs » (ancrée) affichée');
     ok(!labTrackText.includes('Simple simulation, sans garantie'),
       'pas d\'avertissement tant que la prolongation est off');
     // 3) Active « Prolonger » → légende prolongée + AVERTISSEMENT VISIBLE
-    await page.evaluate((lbl) => {
-      [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === lbl)?.click();
-    }, 'Prolonger');
+    await clickChip('Prolonger');
     await page.waitForTimeout(400);
     const extendText = await page.textContent('main.content');
     ok(extendText.includes('Tracé labs prolongé'), 'légende de la partie prolongée affichée');
@@ -209,15 +210,50 @@ async function main() {
     ok(extendText.includes('qui peuvent eux-mêmes être erronés'),
       'avertissement : les résultats de lab peuvent être erronés');
     // 4) Désactive « Prolonger » → avertissement ET légende prolongée disparaissent
-    await page.evaluate((lbl) => {
-      [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === lbl)?.click();
-    }, 'Prolonger');
+    await clickChip('Prolonger');
     await page.waitForTimeout(400);
     const offText = await page.textContent('main.content');
     ok(!offText.includes('Tracé labs prolongé') && !offText.includes('Simple simulation, sans garantie'),
       'désactivation → légende prolongée + avertissement disparaissent');
     await page.screenshot({ path: join(SHOTS, 'e2e-chart-extend.png') });
 
+    // ── 2.quater NUAGE D'INCERTITUDE (v1.9.0, exclusif ESE) ────────────────
+    // La démo a maintenant 2 traitements E2 (EEn TFS + EV ESE) → toggles
+    // alignés : ESE et TFS ON par défaut (v1.4.7) → le chip Nuage est
+    // ACTIVABLE dès le départ. Séquence : activer Nuage → légende visible ;
+    // désactiver ESE → le nuage se coupe AUTOMATIQUEMENT (exclusivité) ;
+    // réactiver ESE → nuage de retour.
+    console.log('── Nuage d incertitude (#chart, v1.9.0) ──');
+    const cloudIsSelected = () => page.evaluate(() =>
+      [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')]
+        .some((x) => x.textContent.trim() === 'Nuage' && x.classList.contains('selected')));
+    const cloudIsDisabled = () => page.evaluate(() => {
+      const b = [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === 'Nuage');
+      return b ? /opacity:\s*0\.4/.test(b.getAttribute('style') || '') : null;
+    });
+    // ESE est ON à ce stade (scénario 2.bis) → Nuage activable
+    await clickChip('Nuage');
+    await page.waitForTimeout(500);
+    ok(await cloudIsSelected() === true, 'chip « Nuage » activé (ESE affiché)');
+    const cloudText1 = await page.textContent('main.content');
+    ok(cloudText1.includes('Nuage pointillé = incertitude des paramètres MCMC'),
+      'légende du nuage MCMC affichée (ESE + Nuage ON)');
+    // Désactiver ESE → le nuage se coupe AUTOMATIQUEMENT (exclusivité)
+    await clickChip('Estrannaise'); // ESE OFF
+    await page.waitForTimeout(500);
+    ok(await cloudIsSelected() === false,
+      'désactiver ESE → le nuage se coupe automatiquement (exclusivité ESE)');
+    const offAfter = await page.evaluate(() => {
+      const b = [...document.querySelectorAll('.chip')].find((x) => x.textContent.trim() === 'Nuage');
+      return b ? /opacity:\s*0\.4/.test(b.getAttribute('style') || '') : null;
+    });
+    ok(offAfter === true, 'chip « Nuage » redevient désactivé sans ESE');
+    // Réactiver ESE → Nuage ré-activable
+    await clickChip('Estrannaise');
+    await page.waitForTimeout(400);
+    ok(await cloudIsDisabled() === false, 'réactiver ESE → Nuage redevient activable');
+    await page.screenshot({ path: join(SHOTS, 'e2e-chart-cloud.png') });
+
     // ── 2.ter PERSISTANCE de l'état du graphique (v1.6.1) ───────────────────
     // Bug remonté : les options se réinitialisaient « toutes seules » car le
     // tick minute / une mutation du store / un resize re-créaient l'écran
@@ -298,7 +334,7 @@ async function main() {
     await page.waitForTimeout(300);
     text = await page.textContent('main.content');
     ok(text.includes('Langue'), 'Paramètres : carte langue');
-    ok(text.includes('Version 1.8.1 (web)'), 'Paramètres : version affichée');
+    ok(text.includes('Version 1.9.0 (web)'), 'Paramètres : version affichée');
     ok(text.includes('100 % local'), 'Paramètres : note vie privée');
     await page.screenshot({ path: join(SHOTS, 'e2e-settings.png') });
 
diff --git a/tests/estrannaise-cloud.test.js b/tests/estrannaise-cloud.test.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..773bb7d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/estrannaise-cloud.test.js
@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+/**
+ * Tests du NUAGE D'INCERTITUDE (v1.9.0 — miroir de `EstrannaiseCloudTest.kt`,
+ * `js/pk/estrannaise-cloud.js`) : 32 courbes par défaut, dispersion réelle
+ * entre courbes, fenêtre respectée, exclusivité ESE (TFS/oral → vide).
+ */
+
+import { test, describe, before } from 'node:test';
+import { join } from 'node:path';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { initProfiles, makeTreatment, makeDose, DAY_MS, WEB_ROOT } from './helpers.js';
+import { compute } from '../js/pk/estrannaise-cloud.js';
+import { initWithJson as initMcmc } from '../js/pk/estrannaise-models.js';
+
+const NOW = 1_790_000_000_000;
+
+function ese() {
+  return makeTreatment({
+    name: 'EEn ESE', type: 'ESTRADIOL', route: 'INJECTION_IM',
+    doseAmount: 5.0, doseUnit: 'mg', esterType: 'EEN', pkModel: 'ESE',
+    forecastIntervalDays: 7.0, isActive: true,
+  });
+}
+
+function doses() {
+  return [4, 3, 2, 1].map((k) => makeDose(NOW - k * DAY_MS, 5.0));
+}
+
+describe('EstrannaiseCloud web (miroir Android v1.9.0)', () => {
+  before(() => {
+    initProfiles();
+    // Le nuage exige le posterior MCMC chargé (313 échantillons/ester)
+    initMcmc(readFileSync(join(WEB_ROOT, 'assets/mcmc_samples.json'), 'utf8'));
+  });
+
+  test('32 courbes avec dispersion réelle entre elles', () => {
+    const cloud = compute([ese()], doses(), NOW - 30 * DAY_MS, NOW, 3_600_000, NOW);
+    assert.equal(cloud.length, 32);
+    assert.ok(cloud.every((c) => c.length >= 2));
+    const peaks = [...new Set(cloud.map((c) => Math.max(...c.map((p) => p.e2))))];
+    assert.ok(peaks.length >= 8, `les courbes divergent (${peaks.length} maxima distincts)`);
+  });
+
+  test('le nuage reste dans la fenêtre demandée', () => {
+    const start = NOW - 10 * DAY_MS;
+    const end = NOW;
+    const cloud = compute([ese()], doses(), start, end, 3_600_000, NOW);
+    assert.ok(cloud.every((c) => c.every((p) => p.timestamp >= start && p.timestamp <= end)));
+  });
+
+  test('exclusivité ESE : TFS et oral produisent un nuage vide', () => {
+    const tfs = { ...ese(), pkModel: 'TFS' };
+    assert.equal(compute([tfs], doses(), NOW - 30 * DAY_MS, NOW, 3_600_000, NOW).length, 0);
+    const oral = makeTreatment({
+      name: 'CPA', type: 'ANTI_ANDROGEN', route: 'ORAL',
+      doseAmount: 12.5, doseUnit: 'mg', esterType: 'NONE',
+      forecastIntervalDays: 2.0, isActive: true,
+    });
+    assert.equal(compute([oral], doses(), NOW - 30 * DAY_MS, NOW, 3_600_000, NOW).length, 0);
+  });
+
+  test('aucune dose sur le porteur → nuage vide', () => {
+    assert.equal(compute([ese()], [], NOW - 30 * DAY_MS, NOW, 3_600_000, NOW).length, 0);
+  });
+
+  test('nbCurves < 2 → nuage vide', () => {
+    assert.equal(compute([ese()], doses(), NOW - 30 * DAY_MS, NOW, 3_600_000, NOW, 1).length, 0);
+  });
+});
diff --git a/tests/estrannaise-models.test.js b/tests/estrannaise-models.test.js
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..23f1575
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/estrannaise-models.test.js
@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+/**
+ * Tests du modèle **Estrannaise analytique** (v1.9.0 — miroir de
+ * `EstrannaiseModelsTest.kt`) : forme close 3C publiée par estrannaise.js,
+ * fidélité aux tables ODS (RMS ≈ 0), cas dégénérés, MCMC 313, t½ analytique.
+ */
+
+import { test, describe, before } from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { readFileSync } from 'node:fs';
+import { join } from 'node:path';
+import { initProfiles, WEB_ROOT } from './helpers.js';
+import {
+  sample, hasModel, model, mcmcSamples, initWithJson, sampleWithParams,
+} from '../js/pk/estrannaise-models.js';
+
+describe('EstrannaiseModels web (miroir Android v1.9.0)', () => {
+  before(() => {
+    initProfiles(); // tables ODS (référence de fidélité, src/test side)
+    const mcmc = readFileSync(join(WEB_ROOT, 'assets/mcmc_samples.json'), 'utf8');
+    initWithJson(mcmc);
+  });
+
+  test('FIDÉLITÉ : la forme close reproduit les tables ODS (RMS ≈ 0)', () => {
+    const profiles = JSON.parse(
+      readFileSync(join(WEB_ROOT, 'assets/pk_profiles.json'), 'utf8'),
+    ).profiles;
+    for (const ester of ['EV', 'EU', 'EEN']) {
+      const key = Object.keys(profiles)
+        .find((k) => k.toLowerCase().startsWith(ester.toLowerCase() + '_') && k.toLowerCase().endsWith('ese'));
+      const arr = profiles[key];
+      let maxAbs = 0;
+      let sumSq = 0;
+      for (let h = 0; h <= 4800; h++) {
+        const diff = sample(ester, h) - arr[h];
+        maxAbs = Math.max(maxAbs, Math.abs(diff));
+        sumSq += diff * diff;
+      }
+      const rms = Math.sqrt(sumSq / 4801);
+      assert.ok(maxAbs <= 0.01 && rms <= 0.01, `${ester} : maxAbs=${maxAbs} rms=${rms}`);
+    }
+  });
+
+  test('les pics publiés sont reproduits (61,12 / 3,44 / 31,35 pg/mL/mg)', () => {
+    const expects = [
+      ['EV', 61.12], ['EU', 3.44], ['EEN', 31.35],
+    ];
+    for (const [ester, peakExpect] of expects) {
+      let peak = 0;
+      for (let t = 0; t <= 200; t += 0.25 / 24) {
+        peak = Math.max(peak, sample(ester, t * 24));
+      }
+      assert.ok(
+        Math.abs(peak - peakExpect) <= peakExpect * 0.002,
+        `pic ${ester} = ${peak} (attendu ${peakExpect} ±0,2 %)`,
+      );
+    }
+  });
+
+  test('taux dégénérés : solutions limites sans NaN ni négatif', () => {
+    for (const p of [
+      { d: 478, k1: 0.236, k2: 0.236, k3: 1.24 },
+      { d: 478, k1: 0.236, k2: 1.24, k3: 0.236 },
+      { d: 478, k1: 0.236, k2: 1.24, k3: 1.24 },
+      { d: 478, k1: 0.5, k2: 0.5, k3: 0.5 },
+    ]) {
+      for (const t of [0.5, 1.0, 24.0, 240.0, 2400.0]) {
+        const v = sampleWithParams('EV', t, p);
+        assert.ok(v >= 0 && !Number.isNaN(v), `finie et ≥ 0 (t=${t})`);
+      }
+    }
+  });
+
+  test('MCMC : 313 échantillons par ester injectable (6 esters)', () => {
+    for (const ester of ['EV', 'EU', 'EEN', 'EC', 'EB', 'EUCS']) {
+      assert.equal(mcmcSamples(ester).length, 313, `posterior ${ester}`);
+      assert.notEqual(
+        mcmcSamples(ester)[0].d, mcmcSamples(ester)[312].d,
+        'le posterior couvre une plage',
+      );
+    }
+  });
+
+  test('t½ terminale ANALYTIQUE : EV = ln2/0,236 ≈ 2,94 j', () => {
+    const tHalf = model('EV').terminalHalfLifeDays;
+    assert.ok(Math.abs(tHalf - Math.log(2) / 0.236) < 1e-12);
+  });
+
+  test('normalisation par mg + gardes (dt ≤ 0, ester inconnu, EUCS couvert)', () => {
+    assert.equal(sample('EEN', 0), 0);
+    assert.equal(sample('EEN', -1), 0);
+    assert.equal(sample('XXX', 24), 0);
+    assert.ok(sample('EUCS', 24) > 0);
+    assert.equal(hasModel('XXX'), false);
+    assert.equal(hasModel('EUCS'), true);
+  });
+});